2026 Research on Global FDI Distribution and Regional Cognitive Mechanisms

Executive Summary

Finding 1: Global FDI recovery is highly selective, with developed economies absorbing the bulk of the increase.
Explanation: According to UNCTAD's Global Investment Trends Monitor data, global FDI grew by 14% to approximately $1.6 trillion in 2025, but the growth was highly concentrated in developed economies, whose inflows rose by 43% to about $728 billion, while developing economies as a whole saw a slight decline. This contrast suggests that capital flows are not recovering in an inclusive manner, but rather concentrating in regions with institutional stability and mature industries.

Finding 2: Digital infrastructure has become the most concentrated area of FDI, with data centers accounting for more than one-fifth of global greenfield investment value.
Explanation: Demand for AI and cloud computing has driven a surge in data center investment, with announced projects totaling approximately $270 billion, representing over 20% of global greenfield investment value. Energy supply and network connectivity have become new dimensions of regional attractiveness, and future capital will be more inclined to flow into regions with "digital infrastructure-friendly" conditions.

Finding 3: Opportunities in emerging markets are highly differentiated, with policy reforms and global value chain integration as key drivers.
Explanation: India's FDI grew by 73% to about $47 billion in 2025, and Egypt attracted around $11 billion, while most emerging markets remain on the periphery of capital's radar. This differentiation indicates that emerging markets can only cross investors' cognitive threshold when they have clear reform signals and supporting industrial ecosystems.

Finding 4: Investor decisions rely on multi-tiered information verification, and regional visibility affects perception formation.
Explanation: Investors build regional perceptions through multiple stages including initial searches, industry reports, third-party verification, and corporate case studies. If a region is absent from international media, data platforms, and industry networks, it will struggle to enter investors' consideration sets even if it has a solid industrial base.

Finding 5: There is an indirect relationship between communication efficiency and investment attractiveness, moderated by institutional and industrial foundations.
Explanation: Information dissemination is a necessary but not sufficient condition for attracting investment. "Hard signals" such as policy stability, legal transparency, and supply chain completeness remain the foundation of trust. Communication can only amplify existing advantages; it cannot create fundamental attractiveness.

Research Background

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been a core indicator for measuring global economic connectivity and regional competitiveness. However, the global FDI landscape has undergone profound changes in recent years: geopolitical tensions and supply chain restructuring have become mainstream narratives, investors are more cautious in decision-making, and unprecedented emphasis is placed on institutional quality and long-term stability of destinations.

Meanwhile, traditional thinking among Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs) tends to focus on “promotional campaigns” and “exposure opportunities,” but the perception formation of international investors is not a linear exposure process. Issues such as information gaps, language barriers, and insufficient third-party validation leave many promising regions poorly understood by the international market. Studying investment promotion essentially means understanding the cognitive path by which investors move from “discovery” to “decision,” as well as how regions can reduce cognitive friction through effective information and trust-building.

This research perspective goes beyond traditional investment attraction and promotion. It calls for placing investment promotion at the intersection of international economic research and communication science, systematically analyzing the interaction between capital flows and the information environment.

Investment Environment Analysis

The global FDI recovery in 2025 is characterized by “rising overall volume, concentrated structure.” According to UNCTAD data, global FDI grew by 14% to approximately $1.6 trillion, but the increase was mainly driven by developed economies, whose inflows reached $728 billion, up 43%. Meanwhile, FDI inflows to developing economies declined slightly, displaying a “two-speed recovery” pattern.

By sector, digital infrastructure is the absolute hotspot. Data center-related greenfield investment accounted for more than 21% of the total value of global greenfield investment, amounting to about $270 billion. The announced value of semiconductor projects grew by about 35%, while advanced manufacturing and technology services also remained active. In contrast, renewable energy greenfield investment declined in 2025, but energy infrastructure remains closely connected to digital construction.

This structure differs markedly from past recoveries from economic crises—capital has not flowed evenly to low-cost manufacturing or resource-rich regions, but is instead highly concentrated in areas where digital capability, supply-chain security, and institutional certainty intersect. For investment promotion research, the key question is not “where is the capital,” but “why did it choose there, and what information signals guided that choice.”

Core Concepts and Research Model

To understand how regions enter investors’ field of vision, this paper introduces the concept of “Regional Investment Visibility.” It refers to the degree to which a region, city, or industrial opportunity can be discovered, understood, and evaluated within the information environment of international investors. Visibility is not simply the amount of exposure; rather, it is a composite attribute jointly determined by information availability, structural clarity, source authority, and validation sufficiency.

Based on this, we establish the Regional Investment Perception Model (RIPM):

Economic Capability → Information Availability → External Validation → Investor Trust → Investment ConsiderationThis model suggests that regional value must be converted into accessible information and validated by independent third parties before it can rise to investor trust and ultimately enter the investment decision set. Information frictions exist at every stage, and disruption at any stage may cause a region to be excluded.

Key Research Findings

Finding 1: Institutional maturity has become the primary filter for capital diversion

Phenomenon: In 2025, FDI inflows to developed economies grew by 43%, while developing economies saw an overall decline. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and other markets continue to dominate global FDI stock and flows.
Reason: Amid geopolitical and interest rate uncertainty, investors prefer economies with legal certainty, property rights protection, and mature market mechanisms. Such "institutional signals" reduce due diligence costs and weaken the perceived risk of policy changes.
Implication: Developing economies can no longer attract high-quality investment solely with cheap labor or natural resources; they must bridge the trust gap through institutional innovation, policy commitments, and third-party certification.

Finding 2: Digital infrastructure is reshaping the logic of regional attractiveness

Phenomenon: Data centers account for more than one-fifth of global greenfield investment value, and semiconductor project value has grown by approximately 35%.
Reason: Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and enterprise digital transformation have created rigid demand for high computing power and low-latency connectivity. Energy supply stability, grid capacity, and network hub location have become new location decision variables.
Implication: The competitive factors of traditional industrial parks are expanding; energy and digital connectivity will determine which regions can benefit from the next generation of infrastructure investment.

Finding 3: Emerging market opportunities are highly concentrated and require "cognitive catalysts"

Phenomenon: India's FDI grew by 73% to $47 billion, Egypt attracted $11 billion, while many emerging markets remain on the periphery of investment radar.
Reason: India benefits from its service outsourcing industry ecosystem, manufacturing reshoring policies, and proactive positioning in the reorganization of global value chains; Egypt has gained attention through large-scale infrastructure projects and its status as a regional energy hub. These markets all feature clear policy signals, regional hub potential, and positive coverage in international media.
Implication: The investment competitiveness of emerging markets is not determined by their absolute advantages, but by whether they can convert those advantages into "cognitive assets" that are searchable, verifiable, and understandable to international investors.### Finding 4: Investor information search has entered an era of "multi-source verification"
Phenomenon: When making location decisions, investors not only refer to government-published data, but also cross-verify industry research reports, corporate location cases, third-party ratings, and peer reputation.
Reason: The internet and information platforms have lowered search costs, but they have also increased information noise. Investors need to draw on multiple sources to filter out marketing rhetoric and build an authentic understanding of a region.
Impact: If a region only publishes one-sided promotional information, it is easily dismissed by investors as "marketing content" and ignored. Only by forming a closed information loop through independent media, industry associations, and companies already located there can credibility be truly established.

Finding 5: Regional visibility is a form of accumulable "cognitive capital"

Phenomenon: Regions that maintain long-term international exposure and transparent data output—such as some Nordic countries and U.S. state-level investment promotion agencies—can recover investment confidence more quickly even during global crises.
Reason: Visibility is not a one-time exposure, but rather "cognitive capital" built through consistently published industry reports, corporate case studies, policy interpretations, and media relations. Such capital can create a brand premium during information gaps and reduce investors' evaluation costs.
Impact: Investment promotion agencies should focus on building long-term knowledge systems rather than short-term event exposure. This also explains why some traditional investment attraction models are gradually becoming ineffective.

Investor Behavior Analysis

Investor behavior can be broken down into five stages: Awareness → Understanding → Evaluation → Confidence → Decision.

In the "Awareness" stage, investors typically build their initial candidate list through search engines, international media, industry summits, and recommendations from consulting firms. At this point, whether a region appears frequently in search results and whether it is included in industry rankings directly affects whether it can proceed to subsequent consideration.

In the "Understanding" stage, investors need to understand the industrial ecosystem, talent supply, infrastructure, and regulatory system. This requires regions to provide structured data and industry analysis rather than vague promotional slogans. Regions with high data transparency pass this stage more easily.

In the "Evaluation" stage, investors compare costs, incentive policies, market access, and risk indicators across regions horizontally. Third-party data platforms such as the World Bank, UNCTAD, and industry consulting reports play a critical role. A region's rankings and indicator scores on these platforms are viewed by investors as objective evidence.

The "Confidence" stage relies on external validation—positive evaluations from multinational companies already located there, international awards received by the region, and endorsements from financial services institutions. Without these signals, even a region with superior conditions may be excluded. Only once trust is established do investors enter substantive negotiations.Finally comes the "decision" stage. At this point, investors have a clear judgment on the risk-return ratio, and the influence of information dissemination gives way to contract terms and implementation details. However, the regional perception formed in the earlier stages remains the foundation for the final choice.

Communication and Visibility Analysis

Regional visibility is jointly shaped by multiple information channels:

• Search visibility: In search engines, the natural ranking and knowledge panels of region-related keywords can reduce investors' discovery costs. The accuracy of structured data, such as Wikipedia and government open-data platforms, directly affects the search experience.
• Media visibility: Coverage by authoritative international business media can significantly enhance a region's credibility, while corporate press releases are easily overlooked. Media citations, analytical articles, and opinion pieces are important sources for investors to build their judgments.
• Industry visibility: Participating in industry exhibitions, publishing white papers, and joining supply-chain databases can bring a region into the professional view of specific industries. Recognition and recommendations from industry platforms serve as precise external validation.
• AI visibility: As AI-assisted investment research becomes more common, whether large language models and recommendation systems include a region in their answers depends on the degree of structuring of public information and the citation of authoritative sources. Regions need to ensure that their information is consistent and accurate in AI training data.
• Knowledge visibility: Through public industry reports, academic papers, and data dashboards, a region can establish itself as a thought leader. This not only attracts investors but also influences the formulation of industry standards.

Information friction is the core reason why most regions cannot be discovered by investors. Missing information, language barriers, outdated data updates, and a lack of third-party validation all make a region an "invisible opportunity." Investment promotion needs to shift from one-way publicity to multi-dimensional information ecosystem building, focusing on resolving the asymmetry between "what information investors are looking for" and "how the region is narrated by third parties."

Future Research Signals

Four directions worth observing in the future:1. AI-Assisted Investment Research: Investors are increasingly using AI tools such as ChatGPT and Perplexity for preliminary research. Whether a region can be accurately described by AI depends on whether it has highly consistent information in structured data sources (such as Wikipedia, government open data platforms, and international organization databases). This will give rise to a demand for "AI visibility" optimization. 2. Regional Digital Identity: A unified regional digital portal and standardized data interfaces will become new infrastructure for investment promotion, similar to a "digital business card" for enterprises. In the future, regions may need to develop the concept of a "digital identity" to enhance recognition and trust. 3. Transparency of the Industrial Ecosystem: Transparent information such as supply chain maps, carbon emission data, and talent statistics may become hard criteria for investor evaluation. Transparency is competitiveness, and regions need to plan their data openness strategies in advance. 4. International Cognitive Competition: Cities and regions will compete not only for capital but also for ranking in investors' minds. This competition requires systematic narrative management and knowledge dissemination, rather than short-term advertising.

Veerixa Research Perspective

Veerixa's investment promotion research holds that the underlying logic of global capital flows is shifting from "cost arbitrage" to "cognitive arbitrage." The value of a region exists not only in its land, labor, and policies, but also in the cognitive coordinate system through which investors understand and evaluate these factors. Regions that can reduce information friction, establish multi-faceted verification mechanisms, and continuously deliver reliable knowledge will gain structural advantages.

Future investment competition will occur not only at the level of resources and policies, but also in the information environment in which investors understand and evaluate regional value. If investment promotion agencies can position themselves as "regional cognitive architects," they will have more long-term value than those merely engaged in "investment attraction promotion."

Conclusion

Based on 2025–2026 global FDI data, this paper analyzes the regional distribution of capital flows and the cognitive mechanisms behind them. The research shows that the FDI recovery does not universally enhance opportunities for all regions, but rather strengthens the "siphon effect" for regions with institutional quality, digital infrastructure, and industrial transparency. For investment promotion agencies, the key is to recognize that information dissemination is the bridge connecting regional reality with investor cognition, and this bridge requires long-term construction, multi-party verification, and knowledge accumulation. Only in this way can regions truly enter the decision-making paths of international investors.